Recent September core CPI data at 0.3% month-over-month, driven by broad-based gains in services and shelter components including a notable OER acceleration, has anchored trader expectations for the BEA’s September core PCE release scheduled for October 29. Analysts at TD Securities and others have revised forecasts to 0.32–0.36% MoM after incorporating weaker PCE-relevant PPI components, reinforcing the 0.3% outcome as the modal print given the historical CPI-to-PCE relationship. This firm underlying inflation trajectory, with market-based measures also elevated, has lifted the implied probability of a 0.3% print to 64.5% while keeping 0.4% as a plausible upside risk at 33.5%. The Fed’s preferred gauge remains above target, with the upcoming report likely to influence rate-path pricing ahead of the December FOMC meeting.