The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as acting president established significant American influence over Venezuelan governance, oil revenues, and foreign policy without a sustained ground invasion or occupation. Subsequent oil agreements granting U.S. firms major stakes in the country’s reserves, combined with prisoner releases, amnesty measures, and ongoing U.S.-backed talks between interim officials and opposition figures, have reinforced trader views that Washington can achieve its objectives through leverage rather than large-scale troop deployment. Recent developments, including June earthquakes disrupting stabilization efforts and continued negotiations over elections and political transition, further reduce the perceived need for escalated military action. Any shift toward broader intervention would likely hinge on breakdowns in these diplomatic and economic arrangements or renewed threats from remaining Maduro-aligned elements.