**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement.** The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiating a comprehensive deal to be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, expired in mid-August without agreement after the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, attacks resumed, and U.S. sanctions waivers were revoked. On September 9, the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran’s nuclear file to the UNSC for the first time in two decades over non-compliance with inspections, passing 23-3 with U.S., UK, French, and German support but opposed by Russia and China. This referral underscores the diplomatic impasse and lack of verified progress on nuclear issues or sanctions relief, aligning with trader consensus that a UNSC-endorsed final deal is unlikely before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
14% 概率
$228,669 交易量
$228,669 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 概率
$228,669 交易量
$228,669 交易量
2026-12-31
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement.** The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiating a comprehensive deal to be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, expired in mid-August without agreement after the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, attacks resumed, and U.S. sanctions waivers were revoked. On September 9, the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran’s nuclear file to the UNSC for the first time in two decades over non-compliance with inspections, passing 23-3 with U.S., UK, French, and German support but opposed by Russia and China. This referral underscores the diplomatic impasse and lack of verified progress on nuclear issues or sanctions relief, aligning with trader consensus that a UNSC-endorsed final deal is unlikely before December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
交易量
$228,669结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETOn June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement.** The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiating a comprehensive deal to be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, expired in mid-August without agreement after the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, attacks resumed, and U.S. sanctions waivers were revoked. On September 9, the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran’s nuclear file to the UNSC for the first time in two decades over non-compliance with inspections, passing 23-3 with U.S., UK, French, and German support but opposed by Russia and China. This referral underscores the diplomatic impasse and lack of verified progress on nuclear issues or sanctions relief, aligning with trader consensus that a UNSC-endorsed final deal is unlikely before December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$228,669结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement.** The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiating a comprehensive deal to be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, expired in mid-August without agreement after the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, attacks resumed, and U.S. sanctions waivers were revoked. On September 9, the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran’s nuclear file to the UNSC for the first time in two decades over non-compliance with inspections, passing 23-3 with U.S., UK, French, and German support but opposed by Russia and China. This referral underscores the diplomatic impasse and lack of verified progress on nuclear issues or sanctions relief, aligning with trader consensus that a UNSC-endorsed final deal is unlikely before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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