The Islamic Republic's institutional continuity after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins the market's strong consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming head-of-state powers by December 31, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated control with IRGC and parliamentary backing, while a subsequent ceasefire preserved the existing power structure despite economic strain and protests. Pahlavi's exile advocacy secured diaspora visibility and some domestic polling favorability, yet U.S. officials explicitly declined endorsement, opposition coalitions fractured over tactics and leadership, and no verified military defections or referendum process materialized to elevate him. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether acute instability before year-end could create an unexpected opening, though structural barriers and the absence of foreign regime-change backing limit that prospect.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$11,744,335 交易量
$11,744,335 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$11,744,335 交易量
$11,744,335 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's institutional continuity after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins the market's strong consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming head-of-state powers by December 31, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated control with IRGC and parliamentary backing, while a subsequent ceasefire preserved the existing power structure despite economic strain and protests. Pahlavi's exile advocacy secured diaspora visibility and some domestic polling favorability, yet U.S. officials explicitly declined endorsement, opposition coalitions fractured over tactics and leadership, and no verified military defections or referendum process materialized to elevate him. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether acute instability before year-end could create an unexpected opening, though structural barriers and the absence of foreign regime-change backing limit that prospect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$11,744,335结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's institutional continuity after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins the market's strong consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming head-of-state powers by December 31, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated control with IRGC and parliamentary backing, while a subsequent ceasefire preserved the existing power structure despite economic strain and protests. Pahlavi's exile advocacy secured diaspora visibility and some domestic polling favorability, yet U.S. officials explicitly declined endorsement, opposition coalitions fractured over tactics and leadership, and no verified military defections or referendum process materialized to elevate him. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether acute instability before year-end could create an unexpected opening, though structural barriers and the absence of foreign regime-change backing limit that prospect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,744,335结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETThe Islamic Republic's institutional continuity after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins the market's strong consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming head-of-state powers by December 31, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated control with IRGC and parliamentary backing, while a subsequent ceasefire preserved the existing power structure despite economic strain and protests. Pahlavi's exile advocacy secured diaspora visibility and some domestic polling favorability, yet U.S. officials explicitly declined endorsement, opposition coalitions fractured over tactics and leadership, and no verified military defections or referendum process materialized to elevate him. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether acute instability before year-end could create an unexpected opening, though structural barriers and the absence of foreign regime-change backing limit that prospect.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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