Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月7日当周有多少船只经过曼德海峡？
9月7日当周有多少船只经过曼德海峡？
170-189 41%
190-209 40%
少于170艘 9.0%
210-229 7%
$38,353 交易量
$38,353 交易量
2026-09-13
少于170艘
9%
170-189
41%
190-209
40%
210-229
7%
230+
5%
170-189 41%
190-209 40%
少于170艘 9.0%
210-229 7%
$38,353 交易量
$38,353 交易量
2026-09-13
少于170艘
$14,012 交易量
9%
170-189
$566 交易量
41%
190-209
$738 交易量
40%
210-229
$1,549 交易量
7%
230+
$21,488 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$38,353结束日期
2026-09-13市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$38,353结束日期
2026-09-13市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRecent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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