Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,152,912 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
2%
10月31日
6%
11月30日
9%
12月31日
14%
2027年6月30日
28%
$25,152,912 交易量
9月30日
$1,031,754 交易量
2%
10月31日
$71,760 交易量
6%
11月30日
$36,648 交易量
9%
12月31日
$4,435,083 交易量
14%
2027年6月30日
$290,529 交易量
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
交易量
$25,152,912结束日期
2027-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$25,152,912结束日期
2027-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETAli Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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