Antitrust litigation from 12 state attorneys general remains the dominant factor keeping the implied probability of a Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery closing by year-end 2026 at just 23.7%. After DOJ clearance and shareholder approval earlier in 2026, a July federal lawsuit alleging reduced competition in streaming, film distribution, and cable triggered a temporary restraining order and a stipulated pause on closing until at least June 2027 or trial resolution. The antitrust trial is now calendared to begin in March 2027, with no expedited path evident from recent September hearings on bond requests and related motions. While most international regulators have cleared the $111 billion transaction and Paramount continues integration planning, the active state court process and explicit delay agreement create clear barriers to a 2026 close.