Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$36,492 交易量
$36,492 交易量
2026-11-02
梅拉妮·斯坦斯伯里（民主党）
94%
Didi Okpareke（共和党）
6%
$36,492 交易量
$36,492 交易量
2026-11-02
梅拉妮·斯坦斯伯里（民主党）
$18,977 交易量
94%
Didi Okpareke（共和党）
$17,515 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$36,492结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$36,492结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETMelanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题