The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from 2026 to 2028, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and associated security disruptions, has left the race fragmented with no dominant contender. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, assigning minimal implied probabilities across listed parties amid a complex sectarian system requiring cross-community alliances for majorities. Amal Movement and Hezbollah maintain influence in Shia areas but face headwinds from recent military setbacks and government formation debates, while Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement compete for Christian seats on reform and sovereignty platforms. Factors that could consolidate support include verifiable progress on economic stabilization under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, shifts in disarmament talks, or new electoral coalitions ahead of the extended timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒） <1%
真主党（Hezb） <1%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF） <1%
自由爱国运动（FPM） <1%
$677,348 交易量
$677,348 交易量
2026-10-31
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒）
1%
真主党（Hezb）
<1%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF）
<1%
自由爱国运动（FPM）
<1%
进步社会党（PSP）
<1%
卡塔伊布党（Kataeb）
<1%
亚美尼亚革命联盟（ARF）
<1%
马拉达运动
<1%
独立运动
<1%
塔卡杜姆党
<1%
伊斯兰慈善项目协会（ICPA）
<1%
伊斯兰集团（IG）
<1%
联盟党（UP）
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党）
<1%
国家自由党（NLP）
<1%
拉娜 – 社会民主党（拉娜）
<1%
玛达党（Mada）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
受欢迎的纳赛尔主义者组织（PNO）
<1%
全国对话党（NDP）
<1%
尊严运动（DM）
<1%
瓦塔尼联盟（Watani）
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒） <1%
真主党（Hezb） <1%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF） <1%
自由爱国运动（FPM） <1%
$677,348 交易量
$677,348 交易量
2026-10-31
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒）
$63,949 交易量
1%
真主党（Hezb）
$56,390 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF）
$169,043 交易量
<1%
自由爱国运动（FPM）
$80,534 交易量
<1%
进步社会党（PSP）
$55,015 交易量
<1%
卡塔伊布党（Kataeb）
$7,370 交易量
<1%
亚美尼亚革命联盟（ARF）
$10,552 交易量
<1%
马拉达运动
$8,688 交易量
<1%
独立运动
$8,894 交易量
<1%
塔卡杜姆党
$11,776 交易量
<1%
伊斯兰慈善项目协会（ICPA）
$9,181 交易量
<1%
伊斯兰集团（IG）
$8,631 交易量
<1%
联盟党（UP）
$7,760 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党）
$10,710 交易量
<1%
国家自由党（NLP）
$9,599 交易量
<1%
拉娜 – 社会民主党（拉娜）
$13,761 交易量
<1%
玛达党（Mada）
$28,113 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$14,166 交易量
<1%
受欢迎的纳赛尔主义者组织（PNO）
$9,264 交易量
<1%
全国对话党（NDP）
$47,398 交易量
<1%
尊严运动（DM）
$29,195 交易量
<1%
瓦塔尼联盟（Watani）
$7,539 交易量
<1%
ReLebanon
$9,819 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from 2026 to 2028, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and associated security disruptions, has left the race fragmented with no dominant contender. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, assigning minimal implied probabilities across listed parties amid a complex sectarian system requiring cross-community alliances for majorities. Amal Movement and Hezbollah maintain influence in Shia areas but face headwinds from recent military setbacks and government formation debates, while Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement compete for Christian seats on reform and sovereignty platforms. Factors that could consolidate support include verifiable progress on economic stabilization under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, shifts in disarmament talks, or new electoral coalitions ahead of the extended timeline.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$677,348结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETParliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from 2026 to 2028, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and associated security disruptions, has left the race fragmented with no dominant contender. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, assigning minimal implied probabilities across listed parties amid a complex sectarian system requiring cross-community alliances for majorities. Amal Movement and Hezbollah maintain influence in Shia areas but face headwinds from recent military setbacks and government formation debates, while Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement compete for Christian seats on reform and sovereignty platforms. Factors that could consolidate support include verifiable progress on economic stabilization under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, shifts in disarmament talks, or new electoral coalitions ahead of the extended timeline.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$677,348结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETThe postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from 2026 to 2028, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and associated security disruptions, has left the race fragmented with no dominant contender. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, assigning minimal implied probabilities across listed parties amid a complex sectarian system requiring cross-community alliances for majorities. Amal Movement and Hezbollah maintain influence in Shia areas but face headwinds from recent military setbacks and government formation debates, while Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement compete for Christian seats on reform and sovereignty platforms. Factors that could consolidate support include verifiable progress on economic stabilization under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, shifts in disarmament talks, or new electoral coalitions ahead of the extended timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题