**Jack Doherty faces no prison time from his November 2025 Miami Beach arrest on charges of controlled-substance possession, marijuana possession, and resisting an officer without violence.** Traders assign this outcome a 98.5% implied probability because the case involves low-level, non-violent offenses typical of first-time offenders in Florida, where courts frequently route such matters through deferred prosecution, diversion programs, or plea deals that avoid incarceration. Doherty posted bond immediately after the arrest, appeared in limited proceedings, and has shown no signs of a conviction carrying jail time as the October 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaches. Separate domestic-battery charges from September 2026 remain a misdemeanor with a maximum one-year county jail exposure but fall outside this market’s scope. Recent developments, including reports that the original case moved toward non-conviction resolution and Doherty’s continued public activity such as an exhibition boxing win, reinforce the market’s strong consensus. An upset producing even short prison time would require an abrupt conviction and sentencing in the final days before the cutoff—an outcome that contradicts standard handling of these charges and the absence of any reported trial momentum or plea developments.