Illinois's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 2024 margin of roughly 11 points and consistent statewide results, underpins trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton at 96%. The open seat created by Dick Durbin's retirement drew a competitive Democratic primary, which Stratton won in March 2026 with 40% of the vote and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, positioning her as the clear general-election favorite against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Tracy, a former state party chair, secured his nomination but faces limited resources and no recent GOP success in Illinois Senate contests since 2010. The race remains rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, with minimal general-election polling available ahead of November. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national realignment could still alter the trajectory, though structural barriers remain substantial.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,370 交易量
$32,370 交易量
2026-11-02
朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿（民主党）
96%
唐·特雷西（共和党）
4%
$32,370 交易量
$32,370 交易量
2026-11-02
朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿（民主党）
$16,811 交易量
96%
唐·特雷西（共和党）
$15,559 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 2024 margin of roughly 11 points and consistent statewide results, underpins trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton at 96%. The open seat created by Dick Durbin's retirement drew a competitive Democratic primary, which Stratton won in March 2026 with 40% of the vote and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, positioning her as the clear general-election favorite against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Tracy, a former state party chair, secured his nomination but faces limited resources and no recent GOP success in Illinois Senate contests since 2010. The race remains rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, with minimal general-election polling available ahead of November. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national realignment could still alter the trajectory, though structural barriers remain substantial.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$32,370结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 2024 margin of roughly 11 points and consistent statewide results, underpins trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton at 96%. The open seat created by Dick Durbin's retirement drew a competitive Democratic primary, which Stratton won in March 2026 with 40% of the vote and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, positioning her as the clear general-election favorite against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Tracy, a former state party chair, secured his nomination but faces limited resources and no recent GOP success in Illinois Senate contests since 2010. The race remains rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, with minimal general-election polling available ahead of November. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national realignment could still alter the trajectory, though structural barriers remain substantial.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$32,370结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETIllinois's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 2024 margin of roughly 11 points and consistent statewide results, underpins trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton at 96%. The open seat created by Dick Durbin's retirement drew a competitive Democratic primary, which Stratton won in March 2026 with 40% of the vote and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, positioning her as the clear general-election favorite against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Tracy, a former state party chair, secured his nomination but faces limited resources and no recent GOP success in Illinois Senate contests since 2010. The race remains rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, with minimal general-election polling available ahead of November. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national realignment could still alter the trajectory, though structural barriers remain substantial.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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