Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflecting the seat’s consistent Democratic lean and her strong primary performance with over 91 percent of the vote in August. The district’s partisan composition, Tokuda’s established fundraising edge exceeding $800,000 raised and substantial cash reserves, and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries underpin trader consensus around her reelection prospects on November 3. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader who ran unopposed in his primary, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for the party in this district. While outside spending or unforeseen late developments such as health events or national political waves could theoretically narrow the margin, current evidence from race ratings and campaign finance shows limited pathways for meaningful change before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$68,800 交易量
$68,800 交易量
2026-11-03
吉尔·德岛卡（民主党）
95%
布伦顿·阿瓦（共和党）
5%
$68,800 交易量
$68,800 交易量
2026-11-03
吉尔·德岛卡（民主党）
$43,459 交易量
95%
布伦顿·阿瓦（共和党）
$25,341 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflecting the seat’s consistent Democratic lean and her strong primary performance with over 91 percent of the vote in August. The district’s partisan composition, Tokuda’s established fundraising edge exceeding $800,000 raised and substantial cash reserves, and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries underpin trader consensus around her reelection prospects on November 3. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader who ran unopposed in his primary, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for the party in this district. While outside spending or unforeseen late developments such as health events or national political waves could theoretically narrow the margin, current evidence from race ratings and campaign finance shows limited pathways for meaningful change before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$68,800结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflecting the seat’s consistent Democratic lean and her strong primary performance with over 91 percent of the vote in August. The district’s partisan composition, Tokuda’s established fundraising edge exceeding $800,000 raised and substantial cash reserves, and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries underpin trader consensus around her reelection prospects on November 3. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader who ran unopposed in his primary, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for the party in this district. While outside spending or unforeseen late developments such as health events or national political waves could theoretically narrow the margin, current evidence from race ratings and campaign finance shows limited pathways for meaningful change before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$68,800结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflecting the seat’s consistent Democratic lean and her strong primary performance with over 91 percent of the vote in August. The district’s partisan composition, Tokuda’s established fundraising edge exceeding $800,000 raised and substantial cash reserves, and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries underpin trader consensus around her reelection prospects on November 3. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader who ran unopposed in his primary, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for the party in this district. While outside spending or unforeseen late developments such as health events or national political waves could theoretically narrow the margin, current evidence from race ratings and campaign finance shows limited pathways for meaningful change before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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