The 96.9% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems primarily from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 7,600 confirmed cases and roughly 3,700 deaths have been reported through mid-September. International surveillance by the WHO and CDC shows limited cross-border transmission—Uganda’s smaller cluster ended in June, and the single exported case in France was rapidly isolated—with global risk assessed as low due to the virus’s direct-contact transmission dynamics and absence of sustained community spread outside affected provinces. Ongoing PHEIC-level responses, including contact tracing and case isolation, continue to limit escalation. A realistic shift could occur if surveillance gaps allow undetected exportations leading to new chains in multiple continents before containment strengthens.