Recent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息-暂停-加息 37%
连加三次息 33%
加息-加息-暂停 16%
加息–暂停–暂停 12%
$89,863 交易量
$89,863 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
37%
加息–暂停–暂停
12%
连加三次息
33%
加息-加息-暂停
16%
其他
3%
加息-暂停-加息 37%
连加三次息 33%
加息-加息-暂停 16%
加息–暂停–暂停 12%
$89,863 交易量
$89,863 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
$7,688 交易量
37%
加息–暂停–暂停
$18,644 交易量
12%
连加三次息
$17,530 交易量
33%
加息-加息-暂停
$21,909 交易量
16%
其他
$1,706 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$89,863结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$89,863结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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