Diddy's projected release from federal custody remains firmly set for early 2028, driving the market's strong "No" consensus at 83.5% for any 2026 exit. Sentenced in October 2025 to 50 months on two Mann Act counts after a split verdict that acquitted him of racketeering and sex-trafficking charges, the music mogul has earned modest reductions through RDAP participation and good-conduct credits at FCI Fort Dix, yet recent adjustments still land his date in January or February 2028. Ongoing appeals before the Second Circuit and separate state reviews in Los Angeles offer slim upside for immediate relief, while disciplinary incidents have occasionally pushed timelines back. Traders see no credible path to 2026 freedom absent an unlikely early pardon or dramatic reversal before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Diddy在2026年被释放？
Diddy在2026年被释放？
是
16% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
16% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diddy's projected release from federal custody remains firmly set for early 2028, driving the market's strong "No" consensus at 83.5% for any 2026 exit. Sentenced in October 2025 to 50 months on two Mann Act counts after a split verdict that acquitted him of racketeering and sex-trafficking charges, the music mogul has earned modest reductions through RDAP participation and good-conduct credits at FCI Fort Dix, yet recent adjustments still land his date in January or February 2028. Ongoing appeals before the Second Circuit and separate state reviews in Los Angeles offer slim upside for immediate relief, while disciplinary incidents have occasionally pushed timelines back. Traders see no credible path to 2026 freedom absent an unlikely early pardon or dramatic reversal before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
交易量
$2,362结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diddy's projected release from federal custody remains firmly set for early 2028, driving the market's strong "No" consensus at 83.5% for any 2026 exit. Sentenced in October 2025 to 50 months on two Mann Act counts after a split verdict that acquitted him of racketeering and sex-trafficking charges, the music mogul has earned modest reductions through RDAP participation and good-conduct credits at FCI Fort Dix, yet recent adjustments still land his date in January or February 2028. Ongoing appeals before the Second Circuit and separate state reviews in Los Angeles offer slim upside for immediate relief, while disciplinary incidents have occasionally pushed timelines back. Traders see no credible path to 2026 freedom absent an unlikely early pardon or dramatic reversal before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,362结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETDiddy's projected release from federal custody remains firmly set for early 2028, driving the market's strong "No" consensus at 83.5% for any 2026 exit. Sentenced in October 2025 to 50 months on two Mann Act counts after a split verdict that acquitted him of racketeering and sex-trafficking charges, the music mogul has earned modest reductions through RDAP participation and good-conduct credits at FCI Fort Dix, yet recent adjustments still land his date in January or February 2028. Ongoing appeals before the Second Circuit and separate state reviews in Los Angeles offer slim upside for immediate relief, while disciplinary incidents have occasionally pushed timelines back. Traders see no credible path to 2026 freedom absent an unlikely early pardon or dramatic reversal before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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