Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in California's 5th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10. McClintock secured 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary and advances with substantial fundraising and name recognition after multiple terms. Challenger Michael Masuda, an engineer and the top Democratic vote-getter, faces structural barriers in this rural and foothill district spanning Stanislaus, Fresno, and surrounding counties. Trader consensus reflects the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of late-breaking developments that typically alter safe-seat dynamics. A national partisan wave, unforeseen scandal, or significant health event for the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,432 交易量
$15,432 交易量
2026-11-02
汤姆·麦克林托克（共和党）
94%
迈克尔·增田（民主党）
7%
$15,432 交易量
$15,432 交易量
2026-11-02
汤姆·麦克林托克（共和党）
$6,905 交易量
94%
迈克尔·增田（民主党）
$8,527 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in California's 5th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10. McClintock secured 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary and advances with substantial fundraising and name recognition after multiple terms. Challenger Michael Masuda, an engineer and the top Democratic vote-getter, faces structural barriers in this rural and foothill district spanning Stanislaus, Fresno, and surrounding counties. Trader consensus reflects the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of late-breaking developments that typically alter safe-seat dynamics. A national partisan wave, unforeseen scandal, or significant health event for the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$15,432结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in California's 5th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10. McClintock secured 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary and advances with substantial fundraising and name recognition after multiple terms. Challenger Michael Masuda, an engineer and the top Democratic vote-getter, faces structural barriers in this rural and foothill district spanning Stanislaus, Fresno, and surrounding counties. Trader consensus reflects the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of late-breaking developments that typically alter safe-seat dynamics. A national partisan wave, unforeseen scandal, or significant health event for the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,432结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in California's 5th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10. McClintock secured 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary and advances with substantial fundraising and name recognition after multiple terms. Challenger Michael Masuda, an engineer and the top Democratic vote-getter, faces structural barriers in this rural and foothill district spanning Stanislaus, Fresno, and surrounding counties. Trader consensus reflects the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of late-breaking developments that typically alter safe-seat dynamics. A national partisan wave, unforeseen scandal, or significant health event for the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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