Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,037 交易量
$35,037 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·麦圭尔（民主党）
97%
詹姆斯·加拉格尔（共和党）
3%
$35,037 交易量
$35,037 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·麦圭尔（民主党）
$26,310 交易量
97%
詹姆斯·加拉格尔（共和党）
$8,727 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$35,037结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,037结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRedistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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