Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于密歇根州 56%
阿拉斯加 16%
缅因州 15%
德克萨斯州 9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
密歇根州
56%
阿拉斯加
16%
缅因州
15%
德克萨斯州
8%
爱荷华州
3%
俄亥俄州
3%
密歇根州 56%
阿拉斯加 16%
缅因州 15%
德克萨斯州 9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
密歇根州
$2,711 交易量
56%
阿拉斯加
$221 交易量
16%
缅因州
$226 交易量
15%
德克萨斯州
$134 交易量
8%
爱荷华州
$129 交易量
3%
俄亥俄州
$293 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
交易量
$3,714结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,714结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETMichigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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