Extensive monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA, and ground-based surveys has detected no near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied probability of No. Decades of orbital data and refined models show such events occur on timescales of centuries to millennia, with the last comparable airburst—the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—releasing roughly half that yield. Traders’ strong consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31 include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers at this stage of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$117,333 交易量
$117,333 交易量
2027-02-28
是
2% 概率
$117,333 交易量
$117,333 交易量
2027-02-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA, and ground-based surveys has detected no near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied probability of No. Decades of orbital data and refined models show such events occur on timescales of centuries to millennia, with the last comparable airburst—the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—releasing roughly half that yield. Traders’ strong consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31 include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers at this stage of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$117,333结束日期
2027-03-01市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA, and ground-based surveys has detected no near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied probability of No. Decades of orbital data and refined models show such events occur on timescales of centuries to millennia, with the last comparable airburst—the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—releasing roughly half that yield. Traders’ strong consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31 include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers at this stage of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$117,333结束日期
2027-03-01市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETExtensive monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA, and ground-based surveys has detected no near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied probability of No. Decades of orbital data and refined models show such events occur on timescales of centuries to millennia, with the last comparable airburst—the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—releasing roughly half that yield. Traders’ strong consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31 include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers at this stage of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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