SpaceX has yet to demonstrate two Starships docking in orbit as of September 2026, with the first dedicated propellant-transfer test now targeted for late 2026 after repeated slips from 2025. Version 3 vehicles incorporate androgynous docking ports and cryogenic transfer hardware, and Flight 13 in July validated key enablers including engine relight and controlled reentry. Trader focus centers on Flight 14’s planned September orbital profile, the pace of subsequent launches needed for a target-plus-tanker rendezvous, and FAA clearances for extended-duration missions. Regulatory reviews, pad availability for rapid sequential flights, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital operations remain the main variables that could accelerate or delay the first ship-to-ship linkup.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$70,030 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年12月31日
4%
2027年12月31日
49%
$70,030 交易量
2026年12月31日
$46,171 交易量
4%
2027年12月31日
$23,859 交易量
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX has yet to demonstrate two Starships docking in orbit as of September 2026, with the first dedicated propellant-transfer test now targeted for late 2026 after repeated slips from 2025. Version 3 vehicles incorporate androgynous docking ports and cryogenic transfer hardware, and Flight 13 in July validated key enablers including engine relight and controlled reentry. Trader focus centers on Flight 14’s planned September orbital profile, the pace of subsequent launches needed for a target-plus-tanker rendezvous, and FAA clearances for extended-duration missions. Regulatory reviews, pad availability for rapid sequential flights, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital operations remain the main variables that could accelerate or delay the first ship-to-ship linkup.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
交易量
$70,030结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX has yet to demonstrate two Starships docking in orbit as of September 2026, with the first dedicated propellant-transfer test now targeted for late 2026 after repeated slips from 2025. Version 3 vehicles incorporate androgynous docking ports and cryogenic transfer hardware, and Flight 13 in July validated key enablers including engine relight and controlled reentry. Trader focus centers on Flight 14’s planned September orbital profile, the pace of subsequent launches needed for a target-plus-tanker rendezvous, and FAA clearances for extended-duration missions. Regulatory reviews, pad availability for rapid sequential flights, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital operations remain the main variables that could accelerate or delay the first ship-to-ship linkup.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$70,030结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETSpaceX has yet to demonstrate two Starships docking in orbit as of September 2026, with the first dedicated propellant-transfer test now targeted for late 2026 after repeated slips from 2025. Version 3 vehicles incorporate androgynous docking ports and cryogenic transfer hardware, and Flight 13 in July validated key enablers including engine relight and controlled reentry. Trader focus centers on Flight 14’s planned September orbital profile, the pace of subsequent launches needed for a target-plus-tanker rendezvous, and FAA clearances for extended-duration missions. Regulatory reviews, pad availability for rapid sequential flights, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital operations remain the main variables that could accelerate or delay the first ship-to-ship linkup.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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