**No at 73.5%** reflects the low annual base rate for a 5 kt or greater bolide combined with continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring that shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that energy release in 2026. Historical fireball records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yielding an expected probability near 50% for any calendar year, yet the absence of confirmed impacts through mid-September and the lack of Sentry-listed objects with meaningful 2026 risk have kept trader-implied odds for Yes well below that level. Small predicted atmospheric entries this year remain far below the 5 kt threshold, and refined orbits continue to confirm safe passages. Resolution depends on the official JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, with any qualifying natural airburst updating the record before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
27% 概率
$314,099 交易量
$314,099 交易量
2027-02-28
是
27% 概率
$314,099 交易量
$314,099 交易量
2027-02-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5%** reflects the low annual base rate for a 5 kt or greater bolide combined with continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring that shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that energy release in 2026. Historical fireball records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yielding an expected probability near 50% for any calendar year, yet the absence of confirmed impacts through mid-September and the lack of Sentry-listed objects with meaningful 2026 risk have kept trader-implied odds for Yes well below that level. Small predicted atmospheric entries this year remain far below the 5 kt threshold, and refined orbits continue to confirm safe passages. Resolution depends on the official JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, with any qualifying natural airburst updating the record before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$314,099结束日期
2027-03-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5%** reflects the low annual base rate for a 5 kt or greater bolide combined with continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring that shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that energy release in 2026. Historical fireball records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yielding an expected probability near 50% for any calendar year, yet the absence of confirmed impacts through mid-September and the lack of Sentry-listed objects with meaningful 2026 risk have kept trader-implied odds for Yes well below that level. Small predicted atmospheric entries this year remain far below the 5 kt threshold, and refined orbits continue to confirm safe passages. Resolution depends on the official JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, with any qualifying natural airburst updating the record before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$314,099结束日期
2027-03-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET**No at 73.5%** reflects the low annual base rate for a 5 kt or greater bolide combined with continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring that shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that energy release in 2026. Historical fireball records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yielding an expected probability near 50% for any calendar year, yet the absence of confirmed impacts through mid-September and the lack of Sentry-listed objects with meaningful 2026 risk have kept trader-implied odds for Yes well below that level. Small predicted atmospheric entries this year remain far below the 5 kt threshold, and refined orbits continue to confirm safe passages. Resolution depends on the official JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, with any qualifying natural airburst updating the record before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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