Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, and Conservatives but short of the levels needed for a clear path to 64 seats. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently show the PQ winning an average of 46-52 seats, with a majority occurring in only about one-fifth of simulations due to vote fragmentation and tight races against the CAQ. The CAQ’s modest rebound among francophone voters and rising Conservative support have further narrowed the PQ’s route to a majority. With the campaign now in its final weeks, these trends have produced trader consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於22% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
22% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, and Conservatives but short of the levels needed for a clear path to 64 seats. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently show the PQ winning an average of 46-52 seats, with a majority occurring in only about one-fifth of simulations due to vote fragmentation and tight races against the CAQ. The CAQ’s modest rebound among francophone voters and rising Conservative support have further narrowed the PQ’s route to a majority. With the campaign now in its final weeks, these trends have produced trader consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,851結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, and Conservatives but short of the levels needed for a clear path to 64 seats. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently show the PQ winning an average of 46-52 seats, with a majority occurring in only about one-fifth of simulations due to vote fragmentation and tight races against the CAQ. The CAQ’s modest rebound among francophone voters and rising Conservative support have further narrowed the PQ’s route to a majority. With the campaign now in its final weeks, these trends have produced trader consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$6,851結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETRecent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, and Conservatives but short of the levels needed for a clear path to 64 seats. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently show the PQ winning an average of 46-52 seats, with a majority occurring in only about one-fifth of simulations due to vote fragmentation and tight races against the CAQ. The CAQ’s modest rebound among francophone voters and rising Conservative support have further narrowed the PQ’s route to a majority. With the campaign now in its final weeks, these trends have produced trader consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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