The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$41,111,632 交易量
$41,111,632 交易量
2026-12-30
賺 3.25% 收益
是
4% 機率
$41,111,632 交易量
$41,111,632 交易量
2026-12-30
賺 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$41,111,632結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$41,111,695結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETThe compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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