Russia's ongoing military commitments in Ukraine, marked by high casualties and incremental advances amid Ukrainian counteractions, continue to constrain its capacity for launching a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Western intelligence assessments from mid-to-late September point to post-Duma election mobilization efforts aimed at sustaining operations against Ukraine, alongside hybrid tactics such as drone incursions or sabotage probes near NATO borders that fall short of full-scale territorial aggression. NATO responses, including U.S. warnings delivered in Moscow and eastern flank defense adjustments, reinforce deterrence without evidence of imminent large-scale moves into additional countries like those in the Baltics. This context supports trader consensus favoring no new invasion by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$520,727 交易量
$520,727 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$520,727 交易量
$520,727 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military commitments in Ukraine, marked by high casualties and incremental advances amid Ukrainian counteractions, continue to constrain its capacity for launching a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Western intelligence assessments from mid-to-late September point to post-Duma election mobilization efforts aimed at sustaining operations against Ukraine, alongside hybrid tactics such as drone incursions or sabotage probes near NATO borders that fall short of full-scale territorial aggression. NATO responses, including U.S. warnings delivered in Moscow and eastern flank defense adjustments, reinforce deterrence without evidence of imminent large-scale moves into additional countries like those in the Baltics. This context supports trader consensus favoring no new invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$520,727結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military commitments in Ukraine, marked by high casualties and incremental advances amid Ukrainian counteractions, continue to constrain its capacity for launching a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Western intelligence assessments from mid-to-late September point to post-Duma election mobilization efforts aimed at sustaining operations against Ukraine, alongside hybrid tactics such as drone incursions or sabotage probes near NATO borders that fall short of full-scale territorial aggression. NATO responses, including U.S. warnings delivered in Moscow and eastern flank defense adjustments, reinforce deterrence without evidence of imminent large-scale moves into additional countries like those in the Baltics. This context supports trader consensus favoring no new invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$520,727結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETRussia's ongoing military commitments in Ukraine, marked by high casualties and incremental advances amid Ukrainian counteractions, continue to constrain its capacity for launching a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Western intelligence assessments from mid-to-late September point to post-Duma election mobilization efforts aimed at sustaining operations against Ukraine, alongside hybrid tactics such as drone incursions or sabotage probes near NATO borders that fall short of full-scale territorial aggression. NATO responses, including U.S. warnings delivered in Moscow and eastern flank defense adjustments, reinforce deterrence without evidence of imminent large-scale moves into additional countries like those in the Baltics. This context supports trader consensus favoring no new invasion by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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