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icon for 2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？

2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？

icon for 2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？

2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？

9月 22

9月 22

9月 22

9月 22

3-4個州 50.0%

5-6個州 50.0%

7-9個州 50%

10個或以上的州 50%

Polymarket
最新

3-4個州 50.0%

5-6個州 50.0%

7-9個州 50%

10個或以上的州 50%

Polymarket
最新

0個州

$25 交易量

1%

1-2個州

$5 交易量

1%

3-4個州

$0 交易量

50%

5-6個州

$0 交易量

50%

7-9個州

$0 交易量

50%

10個或以上的州

$0 交易量

50%

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent flash drought intensification across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Basin, fueled by the warmest June–August on record and prolonged below-normal precipitation, has sustained exceptional (D4) drought conditions into mid-September 2026, with D4 now covering roughly 1.7% of the contiguous U.S. Trader consensus around 3–10+ affected states reflects uncertainty in how the latest U.S. Drought Monitor update will classify marginal areas in states such as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where soil moisture deficits and evaporative demand remain extreme. Short-term rainfall forecasts and any model shifts in steering patterns could contract or expand D4 footprints before the week of September 22, while broader El Niño-related outlooks favor longer-term persistence in the southern tier.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
交易量
$30
結束日期
2026-09-24
市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

結算來源

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent flash drought intensification across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Basin, fueled by the warmest June–August on record and prolonged below-normal precipitation, has sustained exceptional (D4) drought conditions into mid-September 2026, with D4 now covering roughly 1.7% of the contiguous U.S. Trader consensus around 3–10+ affected states reflects uncertainty in how the latest U.S. Drought Monitor update will classify marginal areas in states such as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where soil moisture deficits and evaporative demand remain extreme. Short-term rainfall forecasts and any model shifts in steering patterns could contract or expand D4 footprints before the week of September 22, while broader El Niño-related outlooks favor longer-term persistence in the southern tier.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
交易量
$30
結束日期
2026-09-24
市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

結算來源

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3-4個州" at 50%, followed by "5-6個州" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？" is "3-4個州" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5-6個州" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年9月22日當週，有多少州將處於D4 （特別乾旱）狀態？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.