Anthropic holds the leading 61.8% market-implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev lab leaderboard by end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models consistently ranking just behind OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra (at ~20.5%). Early September releases from both labs reshaped the Pareto frontier, with Anthropic’s models demonstrating strong agentic coding performance in multi-step web development tasks evaluated through crowdsourced Elo voting. Other labs, including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot, and Meta’s Muse Spark series, trail further back despite competitive pricing and incremental gains, leaving limited near-term catalysts likely to reorder the top two before the October resolution window. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s current trajectory as the most stable path to second place.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 61.8%
OpenAI 21%
SpaceXAI 5.2%
阿里巴巴 5%
$19,325 交易量
$19,325 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
62%
OpenAI
21%
SpaceXAI
5%
阿里巴巴
5%
DeepSeek
3%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
2%
谷歌
2%
Poolside
1%
Meta
1%
字節跳動
1%
小米
1%
Mistral
1%
Thinky
<1%
騰訊
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Anthropic 61.8%
OpenAI 21%
SpaceXAI 5.2%
阿里巴巴 5%
$19,325 交易量
$19,325 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$3,144 交易量
62%
OpenAI
$1,405 交易量
21%
SpaceXAI
$626 交易量
5%
阿里巴巴
$1,846 交易量
5%
DeepSeek
$672 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$4,931 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$645 交易量
2%
谷歌
$669 交易量
2%
Poolside
$969 交易量
1%
Meta
$787 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$660 交易量
1%
小米
$409 交易量
1%
Mistral
$794 交易量
1%
Thinky
$656 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$613 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$499 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the leading 61.8% market-implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev lab leaderboard by end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models consistently ranking just behind OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra (at ~20.5%). Early September releases from both labs reshaped the Pareto frontier, with Anthropic’s models demonstrating strong agentic coding performance in multi-step web development tasks evaluated through crowdsourced Elo voting. Other labs, including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot, and Meta’s Muse Spark series, trail further back despite competitive pricing and incremental gains, leaving limited near-term catalysts likely to reorder the top two before the October resolution window. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s current trajectory as the most stable path to second place.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$19,325結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the leading 61.8% market-implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev lab leaderboard by end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models consistently ranking just behind OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra (at ~20.5%). Early September releases from both labs reshaped the Pareto frontier, with Anthropic’s models demonstrating strong agentic coding performance in multi-step web development tasks evaluated through crowdsourced Elo voting. Other labs, including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot, and Meta’s Muse Spark series, trail further back despite competitive pricing and incremental gains, leaving limited near-term catalysts likely to reorder the top two before the October resolution window. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s current trajectory as the most stable path to second place.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$19,325結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETAnthropic holds the leading 61.8% market-implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev lab leaderboard by end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models consistently ranking just behind OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra (at ~20.5%). Early September releases from both labs reshaped the Pareto frontier, with Anthropic’s models demonstrating strong agentic coding performance in multi-step web development tasks evaluated through crowdsourced Elo voting. Other labs, including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot, and Meta’s Muse Spark series, trail further back despite competitive pricing and incremental gains, leaving limited near-term catalysts likely to reorder the top two before the October resolution window. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s current trajectory as the most stable path to second place.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions