Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5, its first generally available Mythos-class large language model with strong long-horizon agentic and coding performance, has set the baseline for the next iteration (5.2+). Traders are watching the company’s post-suspension recovery, including refined safety classifiers and ongoing U.S. government collaboration on export controls and jailbreak frameworks, alongside competitive pressure from models like Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 that recently topped certain design benchmarks at lower cost. Historical patterns of Anthropic releases, combined with the need to restore full capability parity after regulatory pauses, point to a likely late-2026 window, with near-term catalysts including any developer conference updates or benchmark leadership shifts that could accelerate or delay the timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$17,617 交易量
2026-10-31
10 月 31 日
55%
12 月 31 日
88%
$17,617 交易量
10 月 31 日
$15,095 交易量
55%
12 月 31 日
$2,522 交易量
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5, its first generally available Mythos-class large language model with strong long-horizon agentic and coding performance, has set the baseline for the next iteration (5.2+). Traders are watching the company’s post-suspension recovery, including refined safety classifiers and ongoing U.S. government collaboration on export controls and jailbreak frameworks, alongside competitive pressure from models like Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 that recently topped certain design benchmarks at lower cost. Historical patterns of Anthropic releases, combined with the need to restore full capability parity after regulatory pauses, point to a likely late-2026 window, with near-term catalysts including any developer conference updates or benchmark leadership shifts that could accelerate or delay the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$17,617結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5, its first generally available Mythos-class large language model with strong long-horizon agentic and coding performance, has set the baseline for the next iteration (5.2+). Traders are watching the company’s post-suspension recovery, including refined safety classifiers and ongoing U.S. government collaboration on export controls and jailbreak frameworks, alongside competitive pressure from models like Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 that recently topped certain design benchmarks at lower cost. Historical patterns of Anthropic releases, combined with the need to restore full capability parity after regulatory pauses, point to a likely late-2026 window, with near-term catalysts including any developer conference updates or benchmark leadership shifts that could accelerate or delay the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,617結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETAnthropic’s June 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5, its first generally available Mythos-class large language model with strong long-horizon agentic and coding performance, has set the baseline for the next iteration (5.2+). Traders are watching the company’s post-suspension recovery, including refined safety classifiers and ongoing U.S. government collaboration on export controls and jailbreak frameworks, alongside competitive pressure from models like Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 that recently topped certain design benchmarks at lower cost. Historical patterns of Anthropic releases, combined with the need to restore full capability parity after regulatory pauses, point to a likely late-2026 window, with near-term catalysts including any developer conference updates or benchmark leadership shifts that could accelerate or delay the timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions