Japan's economy expanded at a revised annualized 1.4% rate in Q2 2026, with government and IMF forecasts pointing to positive real GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% for the fiscal year amid wage gains and corporate investment. Real wages rose notably in July, private consumption held steady, and export demand for autos and semiconductors provided support despite elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and a weaker yen. Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations reflect improving fundamentals and monetary policy normalization rather than contraction risks. While further energy cost spikes or export weakness could pressure margins and tip growth negative, current data and consensus projections underpin the 94% market-implied probability against recession.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6% 機率
最新
最新
2027-03-30
6% 機率
最新
最新
2027-03-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Japan's economy expanded at a revised annualized 1.4% rate in Q2 2026, with government and IMF forecasts pointing to positive real GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% for the fiscal year amid wage gains and corporate investment. Real wages rose notably in July, private consumption held steady, and export demand for autos and semiconductors provided support despite elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and a weaker yen. Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations reflect improving fundamentals and monetary policy normalization rather than contraction risks. While further energy cost spikes or export weakness could pressure margins and tip growth negative, current data and consensus projections underpin the 94% market-implied probability against recession.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
市場開放時間： Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$4,125結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Japan's economy expanded at a revised annualized 1.4% rate in Q2 2026, with government and IMF forecasts pointing to positive real GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% for the fiscal year amid wage gains and corporate investment. Real wages rose notably in July, private consumption held steady, and export demand for autos and semiconductors provided support despite elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and a weaker yen. Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations reflect improving fundamentals and monetary policy normalization rather than contraction risks. While further energy cost spikes or export weakness could pressure margins and tip growth negative, current data and consensus projections underpin the 94% market-implied probability against recession.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
交易量
$4,125結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETJapan's economy expanded at a revised annualized 1.4% rate in Q2 2026, with government and IMF forecasts pointing to positive real GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% for the fiscal year amid wage gains and corporate investment. Real wages rose notably in July, private consumption held steady, and export demand for autos and semiconductors provided support despite elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and a weaker yen. Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations reflect improving fundamentals and monetary policy normalization rather than contraction risks. While further energy cost spikes or export weakness could pressure margins and tip growth negative, current data and consensus projections underpin the 94% market-implied probability against recession.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions