Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood faces Republican James Marter in Illinois’s 14th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The even partisan voting index and suburban-exurban mix around Elgin, Aurora, and Joliet create a structurally competitive seat that has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Underwood’s 2024 margin exceeding six points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s name recognition, healthcare background, and fundraising edge. Primary results in March confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and no significant polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline since then. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around the low-to-mid 20s for Democrats because that range aligns with the district’s recent performance and the current national environment, while the low odds on a Republican win or larger margins reflect the limited pathways for separation absent late-cycle developments such as turnout surges or national economic signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Democrat 20-25% 26%
Democrat 15-20% 22%
Democrat 25-30% 19%
Democrat 30-35% 13.2%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democrat 35%+
<1%
Democrat 30-35%
13%
Democrat 25-30%
19%
Democrat 20-25%
26%
Democrat 15-20%
22%
Democrat 10-15%
5%
Democrat 5-10%
4%
Democrat 0-5%
1%
Republican Wins
<1%
Democrat 20-25% 26%
Democrat 15-20% 22%
Democrat 25-30% 19%
Democrat 30-35% 13.2%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democrat 35%+
$323 交易量
<1%
Democrat 30-35%
$491 交易量
13%
Democrat 25-30%
$756 交易量
19%
Democrat 20-25%
$1,458 交易量
26%
Democrat 15-20%
$889 交易量
22%
Democrat 10-15%
$487 交易量
5%
Democrat 5-10%
$418 交易量
4%
Democrat 0-5%
$298 交易量
1%
Republican Wins
$283 交易量
<1%
The 2026 IL-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood faces Republican James Marter in Illinois’s 14th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The even partisan voting index and suburban-exurban mix around Elgin, Aurora, and Joliet create a structurally competitive seat that has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Underwood’s 2024 margin exceeding six points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s name recognition, healthcare background, and fundraising edge. Primary results in March confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and no significant polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline since then. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around the low-to-mid 20s for Democrats because that range aligns with the district’s recent performance and the current national environment, while the low odds on a Republican win or larger margins reflect the limited pathways for separation absent late-cycle developments such as turnout surges or national economic signals.
The 2026 IL-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
交易量
$5,404結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 10:58 AM ETThe 2026 IL-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood faces Republican James Marter in Illinois’s 14th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The even partisan voting index and suburban-exurban mix around Elgin, Aurora, and Joliet create a structurally competitive seat that has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Underwood’s 2024 margin exceeding six points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s name recognition, healthcare background, and fundraising edge. Primary results in March confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and no significant polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline since then. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around the low-to-mid 20s for Democrats because that range aligns with the district’s recent performance and the current national environment, while the low odds on a Republican win or larger margins reflect the limited pathways for separation absent late-cycle developments such as turnout surges or national economic signals.
The 2026 IL-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$5,404結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 10:58 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood faces Republican James Marter in Illinois’s 14th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The even partisan voting index and suburban-exurban mix around Elgin, Aurora, and Joliet create a structurally competitive seat that has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Underwood’s 2024 margin exceeding six points. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s name recognition, healthcare background, and fundraising edge. Primary results in March confirmed both nominees without major surprises, and no significant polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline since then. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around the low-to-mid 20s for Democrats because that range aligns with the district’s recent performance and the current national environment, while the low odds on a Republican win or larger margins reflect the limited pathways for separation absent late-cycle developments such as turnout surges or national economic signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions