**Gabriel Coulombe of the Parti Québécois holds a narrow lead at 35.5% in trader pricing for the Charlesbourg riding, just ahead of Conservative Éloïse Coulombe at 31%, with CAQ candidate Marie-Josée Morency at 10% and smaller shares for Liberal, Québec solidaire, and other contenders.** The open seat—following incumbent Jonatan Julien’s decision not to run—has produced a competitive three-way dynamic amid provincial shifts, with PQ support rising on economic sovereignty messaging and the Conservatives appealing to voters seeking lower taxes and reduced regulation. Recent projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the riding as a toss-up among PQ, PCQ, and CAQ, reflecting fragmented opposition to the governing party and limited separation in local polling. The October 5 election date leaves room for late campaign events, including scheduled debates, to influence turnout or consolidate preferences among the main contenders.