The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November 3 general election, with recent polling showing Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond in a statistical tie around 42-45% among likely voters. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat from a prior Republican advantage to a slight Democratic lean, creating an open contest after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement and fueling competitive dynamics on both sides. Trader consensus reflects this balance through elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins near 0-3 points. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include undecided voters, turnout patterns in a midterm environment, and local issues such as affordability and border security. Further polling shifts, candidate endorsements, or national events could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於共和黨 0-3% 37.8%
共和黨3%以上 37.8%
民主黨 15-18% 37.7%
民主黨 0-3% 37.4%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨21%以上
37%
民主黨 18-21%
37%
民主黨 15-18%
38%
民主黨 12-15%
28%
民主黨 9-12%
37%
民主黨 6-9%
37%
民主黨 3-6%
37%
民主黨 0-3%
37%
共和黨 0-3%
38%
共和黨3%以上
38%
共和黨 0-3% 37.8%
共和黨3%以上 37.8%
民主黨 15-18% 37.7%
民主黨 0-3% 37.4%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨21%以上
$50 交易量
37%
民主黨 18-21%
$50 交易量
37%
民主黨 15-18%
$0 交易量
38%
民主黨 12-15%
$212 交易量
28%
民主黨 9-12%
$90 交易量
37%
民主黨 6-9%
$0 交易量
37%
民主黨 3-6%
$90 交易量
37%
民主黨 0-3%
$50 交易量
37%
共和黨 0-3%
$50 交易量
38%
共和黨3%以上
$20 交易量
38%
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November 3 general election, with recent polling showing Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond in a statistical tie around 42-45% among likely voters. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat from a prior Republican advantage to a slight Democratic lean, creating an open contest after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement and fueling competitive dynamics on both sides. Trader consensus reflects this balance through elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins near 0-3 points. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include undecided voters, turnout patterns in a midterm environment, and local issues such as affordability and border security. Further polling shifts, candidate endorsements, or national events could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
交易量
$612結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETThe 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November 3 general election, with recent polling showing Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond in a statistical tie around 42-45% among likely voters. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat from a prior Republican advantage to a slight Democratic lean, creating an open contest after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement and fueling competitive dynamics on both sides. Trader consensus reflects this balance through elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins near 0-3 points. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include undecided voters, turnout patterns in a midterm environment, and local issues such as affordability and border security. Further polling shifts, candidate endorsements, or national events could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$612結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETThe race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November 3 general election, with recent polling showing Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond in a statistical tie around 42-45% among likely voters. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat from a prior Republican advantage to a slight Democratic lean, creating an open contest after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement and fueling competitive dynamics on both sides. Trader consensus reflects this balance through elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins near 0-3 points. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include undecided voters, turnout patterns in a midterm environment, and local issues such as affordability and border security. Further polling shifts, candidate endorsements, or national events could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions