**No further Clacton by-election is expected in 2026, consistent with the 88.5% trader consensus on that outcome.** Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 2026 by-election after resigning his seat in July amid scrutiny over a £5 million donation and related financial matters; he secured 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others in a contest boycotted by major parties. Parliament’s standards investigation paused during the by-election but resumed immediately afterward. As of late September 2026, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no reported resignation, disqualification, or procedural steps toward a vacancy. Recall petition thresholds or other triggers have not been met, and the short remaining timeline before year-end makes a second contest unlikely absent major new developments. Traders price in the stability of the current mandate following the recent re-election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
11% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
11% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No further Clacton by-election is expected in 2026, consistent with the 88.5% trader consensus on that outcome.** Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 2026 by-election after resigning his seat in July amid scrutiny over a £5 million donation and related financial matters; he secured 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others in a contest boycotted by major parties. Parliament’s standards investigation paused during the by-election but resumed immediately afterward.
As of late September 2026, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no reported resignation, disqualification, or procedural steps toward a vacancy. Recall petition thresholds or other triggers have not been met, and the short remaining timeline before year-end makes a second contest unlikely absent major new developments. Traders price in the stability of the current mandate following the recent re-election.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
交易量
$692結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No further Clacton by-election is expected in 2026, consistent with the 88.5% trader consensus on that outcome.** Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 2026 by-election after resigning his seat in July amid scrutiny over a £5 million donation and related financial matters; he secured 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others in a contest boycotted by major parties. Parliament’s standards investigation paused during the by-election but resumed immediately afterward.
As of late September 2026, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no reported resignation, disqualification, or procedural steps toward a vacancy. Recall petition thresholds or other triggers have not been met, and the short remaining timeline before year-end makes a second contest unlikely absent major new developments. Traders price in the stability of the current mandate following the recent re-election.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET**No further Clacton by-election is expected in 2026, consistent with the 88.5% trader consensus on that outcome.** Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 2026 by-election after resigning his seat in July amid scrutiny over a £5 million donation and related financial matters; he secured 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others in a contest boycotted by major parties. Parliament’s standards investigation paused during the by-election but resumed immediately afterward. As of late September 2026, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no reported resignation, disqualification, or procedural steps toward a vacancy. Recall petition thresholds or other triggers have not been met, and the short remaining timeline before year-end makes a second contest unlikely absent major new developments. Traders price in the stability of the current mandate following the recent re-election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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