USGS analysis establishes that magnitude 10.0+ earthquakes cannot occur because no fault long enough to generate such energy release—roughly one-third of Earth's circumference—exists on the planet. The instrumental record confirms a maximum of 9.5, reached in the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, megathrust event, with 2025's largest at 8.8 off Kamchatka and only typical M6–M7 activity through mid-2026. Ongoing global seismic networks detect no anomalous strain accumulation or precursors capable of producing an unprecedented rupture in the remaining months before 2027. While measurement uncertainties exist at the extreme high end of the scale, the absence of any plausible mechanism keeps trader consensus near certainty on "No."
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$817,362 交易量
$817,362 交易量
是
$817,362 交易量
$817,362 交易量
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
USGS analysis establishes that magnitude 10.0+ earthquakes cannot occur because no fault long enough to generate such energy release—roughly one-third of Earth's circumference—exists on the planet. The instrumental record confirms a maximum of 9.5, reached in the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, megathrust event, with 2025's largest at 8.8 off Kamchatka and only typical M6–M7 activity through mid-2026. Ongoing global seismic networks detect no anomalous strain accumulation or precursors capable of producing an unprecedented rupture in the remaining months before 2027. While measurement uncertainties exist at the extreme high end of the scale, the absence of any plausible mechanism keeps trader consensus near certainty on "No."
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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