Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democrat Brad Smith in Wisconsin’s 6th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters and one Grothman carried by more than 22 points in 2024. The district’s east-central Wisconsin footprint, including Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 15-20 point Republican margin of victory. Smith’s narrow August primary win over Amanda Bell and the presence of independent candidates have not altered the structural advantage, as fundraising and polling averages remain aligned with historical partisan lean. National midterm dynamics, candidate visibility in the final weeks, and turnout patterns in suburban and rural counties could still influence the final spread, though current pricing reflects limited expected movement absent major shifts in the broader political environment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWI-06 House Election Margin of Victory
WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 15-20% 40.3%
Republican 10-15% 22%
Republican 20-25% 17%
Republican 5-10% 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 30%+
1%
Republican 25-30%
3%
Republican 20-25%
17%
Republican 15-20%
40%
Republican 10-15%
22%
Republican 5-10%
14%
Republican 0-5%
2%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 15-20% 40.3%
Republican 10-15% 22%
Republican 20-25% 17%
Republican 5-10% 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 30%+
$169 KL.
1%
Republican 25-30%
$207 KL.
3%
Republican 20-25%
$326 KL.
17%
Republican 15-20%
$858 KL.
40%
Republican 10-15%
$502 KL.
22%
Republican 5-10%
$153 KL.
14%
Republican 0-5%
$293 KL.
2%
Democrat Wins
$331 KL.
1%
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democrat Brad Smith in Wisconsin’s 6th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters and one Grothman carried by more than 22 points in 2024. The district’s east-central Wisconsin footprint, including Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 15-20 point Republican margin of victory. Smith’s narrow August primary win over Amanda Bell and the presence of independent candidates have not altered the structural advantage, as fundraising and polling averages remain aligned with historical partisan lean. National midterm dynamics, candidate visibility in the final weeks, and turnout patterns in suburban and rural counties could still influence the final spread, though current pricing reflects limited expected movement absent major shifts in the broader political environment.
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,839Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democrat Brad Smith in Wisconsin’s 6th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters and one Grothman carried by more than 22 points in 2024. The district’s east-central Wisconsin footprint, including Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 15-20 point Republican margin of victory. Smith’s narrow August primary win over Amanda Bell and the presence of independent candidates have not altered the structural advantage, as fundraising and polling averages remain aligned with historical partisan lean. National midterm dynamics, candidate visibility in the final weeks, and turnout patterns in suburban and rural counties could still influence the final spread, though current pricing reflects limited expected movement absent major shifts in the broader political environment.
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,839Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democrat Brad Smith in Wisconsin’s 6th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters and one Grothman carried by more than 22 points in 2024. The district’s east-central Wisconsin footprint, including Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 15-20 point Republican margin of victory. Smith’s narrow August primary win over Amanda Bell and the presence of independent candidates have not altered the structural advantage, as fundraising and polling averages remain aligned with historical partisan lean. National midterm dynamics, candidate visibility in the final weeks, and turnout patterns in suburban and rural counties could still influence the final spread, though current pricing reflects limited expected movement absent major shifts in the broader political environment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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