Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$12,550 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,550 KL.
September 30
$3,447 KL.
5%
October 31
$6,384 KL.
74%
November 30
$2,719 KL.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Khối lượng
$12,550Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$12,550Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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