**Strong model consensus and ongoing intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño position a peak RONI above +2.5°C as the leading outcome.** NOAA’s August outlook assigns greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (peak RONI ≥ +2.0°C) and 69% probability of a historic peak exceeding all post-1950 events during October–December 2026, when the market-implied probability for over 2.5 sits at 58%. Current conditions show RONI at +1.4°C for June–August alongside conventional Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C, fueled by exceptionally warm equatorial Pacific sea surface and subsurface temperatures that support further strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index isolates the ENSO signal by subtracting tropical-mean warming, yet models still project record or near-record values. Traders are monitoring the next CPC diagnostics and November–January forecast updates for any shifts in the peak window or intensity trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 58%
2.25–2.5 34%
2.0–2.25 5.8%
1.5–2.0 2.5%
$30,379 KL.
$30,379 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
<1%
1.5–2.0
3%
2.0–2.25
6%
2.25–2.5
34%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 2.5 58%
2.25–2.5 34%
2.0–2.25 5.8%
1.5–2.0 2.5%
$30,379 KL.
$30,379 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
$821 KL.
<1%
1.5–2.0
$1,863 KL.
3%
2.0–2.25
$2,291 KL.
6%
2.25–2.5
$12,341 KL.
34%
Over 2.5
$13,063 KL.
58%
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.**Strong model consensus and ongoing intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño position a peak RONI above +2.5°C as the leading outcome.** NOAA’s August outlook assigns greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (peak RONI ≥ +2.0°C) and 69% probability of a historic peak exceeding all post-1950 events during October–December 2026, when the market-implied probability for over 2.5 sits at 58%. Current conditions show RONI at +1.4°C for June–August alongside conventional Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C, fueled by exceptionally warm equatorial Pacific sea surface and subsurface temperatures that support further strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index isolates the ENSO signal by subtracting tropical-mean warming, yet models still project record or near-record values. Traders are monitoring the next CPC diagnostics and November–January forecast updates for any shifts in the peak window or intensity trajectory.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$30,379Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.**Strong model consensus and ongoing intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño position a peak RONI above +2.5°C as the leading outcome.** NOAA’s August outlook assigns greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (peak RONI ≥ +2.0°C) and 69% probability of a historic peak exceeding all post-1950 events during October–December 2026, when the market-implied probability for over 2.5 sits at 58%. Current conditions show RONI at +1.4°C for June–August alongside conventional Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C, fueled by exceptionally warm equatorial Pacific sea surface and subsurface temperatures that support further strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index isolates the ENSO signal by subtracting tropical-mean warming, yet models still project record or near-record values. Traders are monitoring the next CPC diagnostics and November–January forecast updates for any shifts in the peak window or intensity trajectory.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Khối lượng
$30,379Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Strong model consensus and ongoing intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño position a peak RONI above +2.5°C as the leading outcome.** NOAA’s August outlook assigns greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (peak RONI ≥ +2.0°C) and 69% probability of a historic peak exceeding all post-1950 events during October–December 2026, when the market-implied probability for over 2.5 sits at 58%. Current conditions show RONI at +1.4°C for June–August alongside conventional Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C, fueled by exceptionally warm equatorial Pacific sea surface and subsurface temperatures that support further strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index isolates the ENSO signal by subtracting tropical-mean warming, yet models still project record or near-record values. Traders are monitoring the next CPC diagnostics and November–January forecast updates for any shifts in the peak window or intensity trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp