**Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger faces Democrat Kristi Burke in the November 3, 2026, general election for Tennessee’s 1st congressional district.** The district, anchored in northeast Tennessee’s Tri-Cities region, carries a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+29 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 29.5-point 2024 presidential margin. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Harshbarger secured the Republican nomination after the August 6 primary, while Burke won the Democratic primary with roughly 77% of the vote. Mid-decade redistricting preserved the district’s Republican character despite statewide map changes aimed at maximizing GOP seats elsewhere. No recent public polls have been released for this matchup, leaving trader assessments anchored in historical performance, incumbency advantages, and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks in the past month. The closely matched probabilities across the 45–55-point Republican margin buckets reflect uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than any competitive balance between candidates. Factors that could shift these odds include late-cycle turnout patterns, independent candidate performance, or unexpected national political events within the final weeks before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTN-01 House Election Margin of Victory
TN-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 45-50% 32.6%
Republican 50-55% 31%
Republican 40-45% 17.3%
Republican 55-60% 16.3%
$11,036 KL.
$11,036 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 60%+
2%
Republican 55-60%
16%
Republican 50-55%
31%
Republican 45-50%
33%
Republican 40-45%
17%
Republican 35-40%
8%
Republican 30-35%
2%
Republican 20-30%
2%
Republican 0-20%
<1%
Democrat Wins
<1%
Republican 45-50% 32.6%
Republican 50-55% 31%
Republican 40-45% 17.3%
Republican 55-60% 16.3%
$11,036 KL.
$11,036 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 60%+
$391 KL.
2%
Republican 55-60%
$1,044 KL.
16%
Republican 50-55%
$2,728 KL.
31%
Republican 45-50%
$1,792 KL.
33%
Republican 40-45%
$2,483 KL.
17%
Republican 35-40%
$565 KL.
8%
Republican 30-35%
$603 KL.
2%
Republican 20-30%
$477 KL.
2%
Republican 0-20%
$516 KL.
<1%
Democrat Wins
$437 KL.
<1%
The 2026 TN-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger faces Democrat Kristi Burke in the November 3, 2026, general election for Tennessee’s 1st congressional district.** The district, anchored in northeast Tennessee’s Tri-Cities region, carries a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+29 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 29.5-point 2024 presidential margin. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican.
Harshbarger secured the Republican nomination after the August 6 primary, while Burke won the Democratic primary with roughly 77% of the vote. Mid-decade redistricting preserved the district’s Republican character despite statewide map changes aimed at maximizing GOP seats elsewhere. No recent public polls have been released for this matchup, leaving trader assessments anchored in historical performance, incumbency advantages, and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks in the past month.
The closely matched probabilities across the 45–55-point Republican margin buckets reflect uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than any competitive balance between candidates. Factors that could shift these odds include late-cycle turnout patterns, independent candidate performance, or unexpected national political events within the final weeks before Election Day.
The 2026 TN-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,036Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 TN-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger faces Democrat Kristi Burke in the November 3, 2026, general election for Tennessee’s 1st congressional district.** The district, anchored in northeast Tennessee’s Tri-Cities region, carries a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+29 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 29.5-point 2024 presidential margin. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican.
Harshbarger secured the Republican nomination after the August 6 primary, while Burke won the Democratic primary with roughly 77% of the vote. Mid-decade redistricting preserved the district’s Republican character despite statewide map changes aimed at maximizing GOP seats elsewhere. No recent public polls have been released for this matchup, leaving trader assessments anchored in historical performance, incumbency advantages, and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks in the past month.
The closely matched probabilities across the 45–55-point Republican margin buckets reflect uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than any competitive balance between candidates. Factors that could shift these odds include late-cycle turnout patterns, independent candidate performance, or unexpected national political events within the final weeks before Election Day.
The 2026 TN-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$11,036Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger faces Democrat Kristi Burke in the November 3, 2026, general election for Tennessee’s 1st congressional district.** The district, anchored in northeast Tennessee’s Tri-Cities region, carries a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+29 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 29.5-point 2024 presidential margin. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Harshbarger secured the Republican nomination after the August 6 primary, while Burke won the Democratic primary with roughly 77% of the vote. Mid-decade redistricting preserved the district’s Republican character despite statewide map changes aimed at maximizing GOP seats elsewhere. No recent public polls have been released for this matchup, leaving trader assessments anchored in historical performance, incumbency advantages, and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks in the past month. The closely matched probabilities across the 45–55-point Republican margin buckets reflect uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than any competitive balance between candidates. Factors that could shift these odds include late-cycle turnout patterns, independent candidate performance, or unexpected national political events within the final weeks before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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