Recent polling averages show the center-right Partido Popular (PP) leading with roughly 32% vote intention, ahead of the governing PSOE at 26-28% and Vox at 18-19%, positioning PP as the clear frontrunner to emerge as the largest party in the November 29 snap election. The right-wing bloc of PP and Vox consistently projects to an outright majority in seat simulations, reflecting sustained voter shifts away from the left since the 2023 contest. Pedro Sánchez’s October 5 decision to dissolve parliament after defeats on housing decrees, amid protests over affordability and a migrant surge in Ceuta, has framed the contest around economic pressures and government performance. These trends underpin the market’s strong implied probability for PP as winner while leaving limited scope for other parties to overtake.