Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 78.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.9%
<4m sq km 1.5%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.3%
$78,113 KL.
$78,113 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
17%
4.4-4.6m sq km
73%
4.6-4.8m sq km
1%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
<1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 78.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.9%
<4m sq km 1.5%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.3%
$78,113 KL.
$78,113 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$33,489 KL.
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$7,400 KL.
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,682 KL.
17%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$4,039 KL.
73%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$10,207 KL.
1%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,284 KL.
1%
5m+ sq km
$15,013 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$78,113Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$78,113Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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