**Modest growth or flat-to-slightly negative outcomes dominate trader positioning for Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized), with the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges leading at 35.9% and 31.5% implied probability, followed by the -0.8–0.0% bin at 23.5%.** This clustering reflects recent data showing Q2 growth revised higher to +0.4% QoQ / +1.4% annualized on stronger government spending and positive net exports, but with private consumption essentially flat and business investment still contracting. September consensus forecasts from the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Q3 annualized growth at just +0.25%, citing subdued household spending despite real wage gains and subsidies, alongside softer exports (-0.12% contribution expected) offset by rising imports tied to energy costs. The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its sixth in the current cycle—underscores tightening to anchor inflation near or above the 2% target amid broadening price pressures, while tight labor markets (unemployment ~2.4–2.5%) provide some support. Key swing factors include the pace of consumption recovery, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and export resilience to AI-related demand versus global headwinds; Q3 preliminary data, due mid-November, will resolve the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.0%–0.8% 35.8%
0.8%–1.6% 31%
-0.8%–0.0% 26%
<-2.4% 6.3%
$27,280 KL.
$27,280 KL.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
26%
0.0%–0.8%
36%
0.8%–1.6%
31%
1.6%–2.4%
6%
2.4%–3.2%
5%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 35.8%
0.8%–1.6% 31%
-0.8%–0.0% 26%
<-2.4% 6.3%
$27,280 KL.
$27,280 KL.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$604 KL.
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 KL.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 KL.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,640 KL.
26%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,253 KL.
36%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,835 KL.
31%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 KL.
6%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 KL.
5%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 KL.
3%
4.0%+
$561 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html**Modest growth or flat-to-slightly negative outcomes dominate trader positioning for Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized), with the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges leading at 35.9% and 31.5% implied probability, followed by the -0.8–0.0% bin at 23.5%.**
This clustering reflects recent data showing Q2 growth revised higher to +0.4% QoQ / +1.4% annualized on stronger government spending and positive net exports, but with private consumption essentially flat and business investment still contracting. September consensus forecasts from the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Q3 annualized growth at just +0.25%, citing subdued household spending despite real wage gains and subsidies, alongside softer exports (-0.12% contribution expected) offset by rising imports tied to energy costs.
The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its sixth in the current cycle—underscores tightening to anchor inflation near or above the 2% target amid broadening price pressures, while tight labor markets (unemployment ~2.4–2.5%) provide some support. Key swing factors include the pace of consumption recovery, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and export resilience to AI-related demand versus global headwinds; Q3 preliminary data, due mid-November, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$27,280Ngày kết thúc
Nov 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html**Modest growth or flat-to-slightly negative outcomes dominate trader positioning for Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized), with the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges leading at 35.9% and 31.5% implied probability, followed by the -0.8–0.0% bin at 23.5%.**
This clustering reflects recent data showing Q2 growth revised higher to +0.4% QoQ / +1.4% annualized on stronger government spending and positive net exports, but with private consumption essentially flat and business investment still contracting. September consensus forecasts from the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Q3 annualized growth at just +0.25%, citing subdued household spending despite real wage gains and subsidies, alongside softer exports (-0.12% contribution expected) offset by rising imports tied to energy costs.
The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its sixth in the current cycle—underscores tightening to anchor inflation near or above the 2% target amid broadening price pressures, while tight labor markets (unemployment ~2.4–2.5%) provide some support. Key swing factors include the pace of consumption recovery, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and export resilience to AI-related demand versus global headwinds; Q3 preliminary data, due mid-November, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$27,280Ngày kết thúc
Nov 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Modest growth or flat-to-slightly negative outcomes dominate trader positioning for Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized), with the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges leading at 35.9% and 31.5% implied probability, followed by the -0.8–0.0% bin at 23.5%.** This clustering reflects recent data showing Q2 growth revised higher to +0.4% QoQ / +1.4% annualized on stronger government spending and positive net exports, but with private consumption essentially flat and business investment still contracting. September consensus forecasts from the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Q3 annualized growth at just +0.25%, citing subdued household spending despite real wage gains and subsidies, alongside softer exports (-0.12% contribution expected) offset by rising imports tied to energy costs. The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its sixth in the current cycle—underscores tightening to anchor inflation near or above the 2% target amid broadening price pressures, while tight labor markets (unemployment ~2.4–2.5%) provide some support. Key swing factors include the pace of consumption recovery, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and export resilience to AI-related demand versus global headwinds; Q3 preliminary data, due mid-November, will resolve the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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