**Trader consensus on 2026 U.S. GDP growth has coalesced around the 2.0–2.5% range at 56% implied probability, consistent with the latest institutional forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2%.** Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a modest 1.5% annualized rate, below the 2.1% pace in Q1, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and sustained strength in business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—have supported underlying resilience. Private-sector projections from U.S. Bank, S&P Global, and PNC, along with the Federal Reserve’s June SEP median of 2.2%, reflect expectations that productivity gains and steady labor-market conditions (unemployment near 4.1–4.3%) will keep expansion near potential despite higher energy prices and tighter policy. Recent retail-sales data and August payroll gains reinforce this baseline, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if they alter rate-path expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2.0–2.5% 56%
1.5–2.0% 18.1%
>2.5% 16.9%
1.0–1.5% 2.8%
$69,967 KL.
$69,967 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
56%
>2.5%
17%
2.0–2.5% 56%
1.5–2.0% 18.1%
>2.5% 16.9%
1.0–1.5% 2.8%
$69,967 KL.
$69,967 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$8,018 KL.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,639 KL.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$4,239 KL.
3%
1.5–2.0%
$8,556 KL.
18%
2.0–2.5%
$13,177 KL.
56%
>2.5%
$18,338 KL.
17%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on 2026 U.S. GDP growth has coalesced around the 2.0–2.5% range at 56% implied probability, consistent with the latest institutional forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2%.**
Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a modest 1.5% annualized rate, below the 2.1% pace in Q1, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and sustained strength in business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—have supported underlying resilience. Private-sector projections from U.S. Bank, S&P Global, and PNC, along with the Federal Reserve’s June SEP median of 2.2%, reflect expectations that productivity gains and steady labor-market conditions (unemployment near 4.1–4.3%) will keep expansion near potential despite higher energy prices and tighter policy. Recent retail-sales data and August payroll gains reinforce this baseline, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if they alter rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$69,967Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on 2026 U.S. GDP growth has coalesced around the 2.0–2.5% range at 56% implied probability, consistent with the latest institutional forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2%.**
Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a modest 1.5% annualized rate, below the 2.1% pace in Q1, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and sustained strength in business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—have supported underlying resilience. Private-sector projections from U.S. Bank, S&P Global, and PNC, along with the Federal Reserve’s June SEP median of 2.2%, reflect expectations that productivity gains and steady labor-market conditions (unemployment near 4.1–4.3%) will keep expansion near potential despite higher energy prices and tighter policy. Recent retail-sales data and August payroll gains reinforce this baseline, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if they alter rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$69,967Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on 2026 U.S. GDP growth has coalesced around the 2.0–2.5% range at 56% implied probability, consistent with the latest institutional forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2%.** Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a modest 1.5% annualized rate, below the 2.1% pace in Q1, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and sustained strength in business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—have supported underlying resilience. Private-sector projections from U.S. Bank, S&P Global, and PNC, along with the Federal Reserve’s June SEP median of 2.2%, reflect expectations that productivity gains and steady labor-market conditions (unemployment near 4.1–4.3%) will keep expansion near potential despite higher energy prices and tighter policy. Recent retail-sales data and August payroll gains reinforce this baseline, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if they alter rate-path expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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