US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria have continued intermittently since early 2026, focusing on border arrangements, demilitarized zones in southern Syria, restoration of the 1974 disengagement lines, and protections for the Druze population, though sovereignty claims over the Golan Heights remain unresolved. Recent Israeli ground incursions, artillery fire, and strikes—documented at over 1,000 since late 2024—have heightened tensions and prompted Syrian demands for full withdrawal, while Damascus signals openness to diplomacy under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Turkish diplomatic and potential military engagement with the new Syrian government has raised Israeli concerns about regional influence. Trader sentiment reflects these competing pressures, with proposals for phased security pacts or even an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026 viewed as possible catalysts, tempered by persistent trust deficits and implementation hurdles.

Jun 30 2026

US says Israel-Syria normalization chances before elections are very slim

December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

On June 30, 2026, a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post that the US administration believes the chances of advancing normalization between Israel and Syria before Israel's upcoming elections are very slim, reflecting market skepticism.

Jun 29 2026

UAE-Syria meeting highlights regional focus on Israel-Lebanon agreement, no Syria-Israel normalization

December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%

A meeting between UAE and Syrian officials focused on regional issues and the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, with no indication of Syria-Israel normalization progress. This maintained market pessimism about normalization by December 31, 2026.

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