US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria have continued intermittently since the 2024 fall of the Assad regime, focusing on reviving the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, establishing demilitarized zones in southern Syria, and addressing Israeli concerns over Iranian or Turkish influence. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has signaled openness to a security pact or non-aggression arrangement that could precede broader diplomacy, while Israel maintains operations in Syrian territory and insists on retaining the Golan Heights. Recent developments include US sanctions relief in mid-2026, high-level meetings in Paris and Jordan, and ongoing Israeli incursions amid Druze-related tensions in Suwayda. These factors shape trader assessments of whether full normalization—such as diplomatic relations or embassies—can occur amid unresolved sovereignty disputes and border frictions.

Jun 30 2026

US says Israel-Syria normalization chances before elections are very slim

December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

On June 30, 2026, a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post that the US administration believes the chances of advancing normalization between Israel and Syria before Israel's upcoming elections are very slim, reflecting market skepticism.

Jun 29 2026

UAE-Syria meeting highlights regional focus on Israel-Lebanon agreement, no Syria-Israel normalization

December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%

A meeting between UAE and Syrian officials focused on regional issues and the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, with no indication of Syria-Israel normalization progress. This maintained market pessimism about normalization by December 31, 2026.

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