Military strikes by the United States and Israel in 2025 and 2026 have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving declared facilities non-operational with no verified reconstruction activity according to the IAEA's October 2026 assessment. Tehran’s stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium remains unaccounted for due to suspended inspections since June 2025, yet satellite monitoring and official statements show Iran prioritizing defensive fortification and diplomatic leverage over rapid weaponization or testing. Hardline parliamentary rhetoric has questioned the longstanding nuclear doctrine and NPT commitments amid ongoing tensions, including recent US strikes on Qeshm Island, but senior officials have confirmed no policy shift has occurred. This combination of degraded infrastructure, verification gaps, and threshold-focused strategy underpins the 97% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Further escalation or undetected activity at undeclared sites could still alter timelines within the resolution window.