**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6% khả năng
$635,569 KL.
$635,569 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Kiếm 3.25%
6% khả năng
$635,569 KL.
$635,569 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Kiếm 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$635,569Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$635,569Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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