Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina coup attempt before 2027?
China coup attempt before 2027?
3% khả năng
$155,383 KL.
$155,383 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$155,383 KL.
$155,383 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$155,383Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$155,383Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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