Recent U.S. security agreements with Denmark and Greenland, signed in late September 2026, have expanded American military access and influence in the Arctic without transferring sovereignty or achieving formal annexation. President Trump’s earlier rhetoric on Greenland, Canada, and other areas produced negotiations and domestic proposals but no completed territorial acquisition by mid-September. Legal requirements for congressional approval, Senate ratification of treaties, and international recognition create high barriers, while domestic polling has shown limited support for coercive measures. Traders assign 95.2 percent probability to “No” because these structural and diplomatic constraints have held through the year’s most prominent cases. Late-year developments such as new bilateral pacts or congressional action could still alter the outcome before December 31.