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Політика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Політика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Jul 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Jul 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

8% шанс
Polymarket

$450,597 Обс.

8% шанс
Polymarket

$450,597 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing U.S.-China summits and leader meetings in 2026 have coincided with reduced PLA aerial incursions around Taiwan, reaching multi-year lows, while Beijing emphasizes coast guard patrols, research vessels, and gray-zone operations east of the island. Taiwan has responded with precision-strike drills, record defense budgets, and drone integration, yet assessments indicate the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment for a full-scale invasion. These factors, alongside scheduled diplomatic engagements through late 2026, underpin the 92.5% trader consensus against an invasion by June 2027, reflecting a strategy of incremental pressure rather than imminent kinetic action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$450,597
Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing U.S.-China summits and leader meetings in 2026 have coincided with reduced PLA aerial incursions around Taiwan, reaching multi-year lows, while Beijing emphasizes coast guard patrols, research vessels, and gray-zone operations east of the island. Taiwan has responded with precision-strike drills, record defense budgets, and drone integration, yet assessments indicate the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment for a full-scale invasion. These factors, alongside scheduled diplomatic engagements through late 2026, underpin the 92.5% trader consensus against an invasion by June 2027, reflecting a strategy of incremental pressure rather than imminent kinetic action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$450,597
Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

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Часті запитання

«Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 8% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 8¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 8%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» згенерував $450.6K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 1, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» — 8% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 8% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

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