Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting perceptions of relative stability after multiple earlier exits. Past turnover included firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard, often tied to policy friction, testimony issues, or personal factors, yet the remaining Senate-confirmed secretaries have shown fewer public signs of imminent change. Low odds on figures such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Doug Burgum align with their continued public alignment on core administration priorities and limited recent reports of internal conflict. Approaching midterms and confirmation delays for replacements appear to reinforce incentives for continuity among current officeholders.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNone before 2027 54.6%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 Обс.
$53,391 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
55%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Susie Wiles
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3%
Doug Burgum
3%
Scott Bessent
3%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
None before 2027 54.6%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 Обс.
$53,391 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$13,401 Обс.
55%
Pete Hegseth
$1,272 Обс.
6%
Susie Wiles
$3,683 Обс.
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,194 Обс.
3%
Doug Burgum
$1,114 Обс.
3%
Scott Bessent
$2,955 Обс.
3%
Kelly Loeffler
$947 Обс.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$762 Обс.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$676 Обс.
2%
Marco Rubio
$677 Обс.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$797 Обс.
2%
Sean Duffy
$806 Обс.
1%
Scott Turner
$477 Обс.
1%
J.D. Vance
$717 Обс.
1%
Mike Waltz
$886 Обс.
1%
Doug Collins
$780 Обс.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,069 Обс.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$676 Обс.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,006 Обс.
1%
Chris Wright
$858 Обс.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$638 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting perceptions of relative stability after multiple earlier exits. Past turnover included firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard, often tied to policy friction, testimony issues, or personal factors, yet the remaining Senate-confirmed secretaries have shown fewer public signs of imminent change. Low odds on figures such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Doug Burgum align with their continued public alignment on core administration priorities and limited recent reports of internal conflict. Approaching midterms and confirmation delays for replacements appear to reinforce incentives for continuity among current officeholders.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$53,391Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting perceptions of relative stability after multiple earlier exits. Past turnover included firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard, often tied to policy friction, testimony issues, or personal factors, yet the remaining Senate-confirmed secretaries have shown fewer public signs of imminent change. Low odds on figures such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Doug Burgum align with their continued public alignment on core administration priorities and limited recent reports of internal conflict. Approaching midterms and confirmation delays for replacements appear to reinforce incentives for continuity among current officeholders.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Обсяг
$53,391Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting perceptions of relative stability after multiple earlier exits. Past turnover included firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard, often tied to policy friction, testimony issues, or personal factors, yet the remaining Senate-confirmed secretaries have shown fewer public signs of imminent change. Low odds on figures such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Doug Burgum align with their continued public alignment on core administration priorities and limited recent reports of internal conflict. Approaching midterms and confirmation delays for replacements appear to reinforce incentives for continuity among current officeholders.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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