Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% шанс
$18,051 Обс.
$18,051 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
3% шанс
$18,051 Обс.
$18,051 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,051Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Обсяг
$18,051Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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